The #OscarProblem

Criticizing the Academy’s lack of inclusiveness is nothing new. When Eddie Murphy presented the award for best picture in 1988, he famously called out the Academy for not recognizing black actors. “I’m going to give this award,”Murphy said, “but black people will not ride the caboose of society and we will not bring up the rear any more.”

This year, the fact that no person of color was among the acting nominees spurred a lot of reaction, from the Twitter conversation #Oscarssowhite, to calls for a boycott of the ceremony, to the Academy’s own notably diverse ad campaign, “We all dream in gold.”

The Academy has pledged to diversify its voting members over the next five years. But as we covered in our ZEITGUIDE to Diversity in Hollywood, the issue extends beyond awards season. Film studio heads are 94% white and male, and the proportion of writers of color has dropped in recent years.

Last year, Oscar ratings were down 16%. Is this a case of all publicity is good publicity, or will a ratings slide continue? Surely some people will tune in just to see how host Chris Rock handles it all.

Who says it doesn’t matter if you win?

The surest indication that the Oscars still matter to the biz? The campaigning for votes is as aggressive as ever.

Studios spend big on ad campaigns and expensive lunches to promote their films and leading actors. By one estimate, studios with best picture nominees will spend $3 million to $10 million lobbying Oscar voters. Actors are trotted through a relentless tour of press events, talk shows and other award shows. Even Leonardo Dicaprio, who most suggest has the Oscar locked up this year for his turn in “The Revenant,” has been pressing the flesh. “Leo is a notoriously press-shy and withdrawn star — but he’s been working this system like a Bronx politico,” notes author and Oscars prognosticator Tom O’Neill.

There’s more than pride on the line. Oscar-winning actors average a 20% pay bump after taking home the award. And as IBISWorld discovered, best picture winners earned almost half their box-office take after being nominated and took home an average of $13.8 million more than non-winners in the category.

Touchstones

As with any art form, choosing what constitutes the “best” movie can be a foolhardy undertaking. That said, some of the best picture nominees come closer to tapping the zeitgeist than others.

• “Spotlight” displayed, in an age when newspapers are threatened with economic extinction, the vital role the press still plays in exposing injustice.
• “Mad Max: Fury Road” may, alongside “The Hunger Games” and “The Force Awakens,” mark the turning point for female heroes.
• “The Big Short” seems likely to be the cultural defining text on the housing market meltdown. Its success could be based on the angst many consumers feel from having still not recovered from the financial crisis; a collective aggravation that has been well reflected in the discourse surrounding this year’s Presidential election.
• “The Martian” and “The Revenant” both tap into powerful human fears about our species’ long-term prospects of survival.

Will we look back at the controversy surrounding this year’s awards as a cultural touchstone; the turning point in the state of diversity and inclusion in the entertainment business? We can be sure there will be less of a white washing of next year’s nominees, especially with Nate Parker’s “The Birth of a Nation” already receiving early Oscars buzz. But if ratings, and interest, continue to fall, perhaps the conversation will be less about the Academy making forward progress and more about the world choosing to leave the Academy behind.