A $20 billion fight is underway over whether to #unlockthebox.

If you’re a cable or satellite subscriber, you know the box we’re talking about — the one that stands between that wire in the wall and your TV. Chances are you rent it and, perhaps without noticing, you are among those paying an average of $232 a year in these fees.

This could all change if the FCC and Chairman Tom Wheeler get their way. Under a new proposal, cable companies could no longer require subscribers to use their proprietary equipment. So instead of that clunky Time Warner cable box or DirecTV DVR, customers could navigate available programming via any number of other (cheaper) devices, like Apple TV (starting at $149), Roku 4 ($129.99), Amazon Fire TV ($99.99), or Google ChromeCast ($35) — or a even a gaming console like PlayStation 4.

Currently you can stream your Netflix or Hulu subscription through these devices, but no cable or satellite company offers an app for them (even though they do for your smartphone). You want their channels on your 60-inch screen? You need their box.

While the FCC argues that promoting innovation and competition in content navigation will benefit consumers,  content providers are, naturally, resistant. The Future of Television Coalition, a group backed by several notable cable providers, argued this week that devices like AppleTV and ChromeCast already represent an alternative for consumers. They also argue that opening up their content streams to other devices allows Apple and Google to “poach” the programming they pay for, run roughshod over copyright and gain a competitive advantage by gathering viewer data.

So far, the FCC isn’t buying it.

Still, it is unclear whether any of this will actually lower costs for cable subscribers, or if cable companies will just hike their rates. Cable companies’ main expense — the fees they pay networks for their content — isn’t going down. By 2020, the retrans fees for CBS alone will total close to $2.5 billion.

The pro set-top box crowd might get a reprieve, if only a short one. There’s a strong chance the FCC won’t finish enacting these changes before the end of this year. Next year will bring a new President and likely a new head of the FCC.

Still, between the cord-cutters, network apps like HBO Now and new models of TVs, it’s clear cable companies are under siege by more than regulators.

In remarks before the FCC this week, TV industry analyst Richard Greenfieldof BTIG stated unequivocally that the current model of paid TV is in decline. “The only question now,” Greenfield remarked, “is the pace of that decline.”