Zeitguide to Earnings Season

Stock prices have been on the rise since 2009, leading even the more optimistic among investors to wonder how much longer the bull market can last. As investors wait to see what happens with the tax overhaul bouncing around in Congress, the news moving the market in recent weeks has been from quarterly results.
Overall, things look strong. Almost 75% of companies exceeded analysts’ expectations, and earnings are up 6.4% compared to Q3 2016. Also, despite the incredibly volatile political environment, Wall Street has been oddly calm all year. Nov. 8 marked 44 straight days of trading when the S&P 500 didn’t drop even half a percent. It hadn’t done that since 1968.
Other big stories out of Q3:
The big get bigger
Despite the negative headlines about Silicon Valley, the FAANGs all easily exceeded forecasts. Facebook, Google and Amazon surpassed profit expectations. Apple’s new iPhone sales are outperforming projections. Netflix beat expectations for subscriber growth. These companies contribute an outsized share of the market’s advance—and that’s been the case for some time now. Microsoft and Intel also enjoyed their biggest gains in years. There was one high-tech loser, however …
Oh, Snap.
Snap shares fell almost 15% after announcing earnings that Jim Cramer described as “hellish.” It missed targets on user growth and revenue, validating the question raised during its IPO: Can Snap expand its audience if Facebook/Instagram can copy—and have more success with—its innovative features?
Retailers still hurting
In a quickly changing retail environment, Macy’s reported better profits, but declines in sales. Kohl’s and Nordstrom also had disappointing sales figures to report. J.C. Penney was a rare bright spot, posting a rise in sales after four quarters of declines. Meantime, off-price and discount retailers from Ross to Dollar General continue to deliver more positive results.
The Harvey and Irma show
A number of S&P 500 companies pointed to the big two hurricanes as negatively impacting their businesses. Retailers, including Costco and Harley Davidson, cited storms as hurting sales. The Federal Reserve observed a slowdown in industrial production. Insurers AIG and Travelers posted losses due to large payouts for damage caused by Harvey and Irma. Other sectors have fared better: building material firms and home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen gains on the assumption that spending will increase with these companies as rebuilding continues.
Cord-cutters, stock price trimmers
Disney fell short of expectations, hurt by the drop in cable/satellite subscribers for its biggest money-maker, ESPN. (Subscriber drops hurt Discovery Communications and Comcast, though the latter had gains in its broadband business.) Disney is in transition, weaning itself off cable revenue and preparing its own streaming service. Also in the mix: a rumored interest in buying 21st Century Fox’s TV and movie assets.
That potential deal typifies the question many companies are grappling with today: Should they grow aggressively to stay competitive with the FAANGs (in this case, Disney with Netflix), or trim the business down to the areas (news and sports for Fox) where they remain profitable and competitive.