“THE ZEITGUIDE MACHINE” BY KRISTOFER PORTER

We just released ZEITGUIDE 2015, our annual almanac summarizing the issues reshaping our culture.

With 2015 upon us, here at ZEITGUIDE headquarters we are already asking ourselves: what’s next? Here’s what we’re keeping tabs on:

• The upshot of the strong U.S. dollar continues with its index hitting a 10-year high yesterday.  The American currency at an 11-year high against the Euro, which bodes well for our economy overall. But if the EU and Asia don’t pick up steam in the next year or so, higher exchange rates could hurt tourism and manufacturing here.

• Is the tech industry becoming winner-takes all? Last year famed tech entrepreneur Marc Andreessen tweeted that spendthrift startups will soon “vaporize” once the tech market turns. But will a shifting tide sink all boats? Some see a “wealth gap” for startups, where winners and losers will be determined much faster.

• Will drones, artificial intelligence and driverless cars reach the masses? FAA regulations on drones won’t come until 2017, but some industries are starting to use drones commercially, and California is still working on driverless car rules. Meanwhile Audi is pushing the envelope, having tested its self-driving A7 with a 500 mile trip from Palo Alto to Las Vegas this week.

• We are still seeing the major consequences of the Sony hack, but imagine an entire city infrastructure being brought down by an online break in. With the “Internet of Things” on the rise, such fears were recently echoed by the FTC chairwoman Edith Ramirez and could slow such exciting technological innovations or scare away consumers.

• Will the “TV bundle” die a slow death by thousands of cuts of the cable cord? Just this week Dish Network announced their smaller $20 Sling TV, “over-the-top” bundled package aimed at millennials and cord-cutters. The “net neturality” ruling expected to come in from the FCC in February could also be a major factor in how this all plays out with FCC chairman Tom Wheeler saying just a few days ago that their new Internet rules will favor neutrality. It’s a big question considering the news this week that by 2020, Internet streaming is expected to surpass TV viewing.

• Vogue has given the new Apple Watch its blessing. Will it find buyers and usher in a new era of tech wearables that are less geek, more chic? Just this week, Quartz called 2015 “The Year of the Apple Watch.” Are they right or is this just another passing fad like the LaserDisc?

• With recreational pot legal in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington—and coming soon to Alaska—will a national marijuana industry grow? It’s estimated that if all 50 states legalized marijuana, tax revenue from the selling of cannabis could top $3 billion. Even Peter Thiel, co-founder of Paypal, is apparently a big believer with news today that he is investing several millions of dollars into marijuana company Privateer Holdings. 

• What is going on with Amazon? The e-commerce juggernaut saw its share price fall 22% and CEO Jeff Bezos lost $7.4 billion in 2014. Has Amazon spread itself too thin? Investors punished it for its bad rollout of the Fire phone and free-spending on new distribution hubs. The latest Fast Company issue, featuring Bezos on the cover, suggests theses moves are in line with the “bold bets” that has helped Bezos succeed up to this point.

• Will China become the world’s biggest movie market? It was reported this week that Chinese box office revenue surged 36% in 2014, and is already 47% of the size of North America’s. And Jack Ma, CEO of China-based e-everything company Alibaba, has been getting friendly with Hollywood studios.

• The 2014 music charts were almost platinum-less until Taylor Swift swooped in late with ‘1989.’ The point was made though: album sales continue to lag as audio streaming (Spotify, Pandora, Beats, SoundCloud, etc.) is on the rise. Will 2015 continue this trend or can new albums by Adele and Kanye West (who we discovered this week is it working with Paul McCartney) reinvigorate the power of the full-length?

• The race is on to create the first breakout content hit in virtual reality with reports this week from tech and electronics showcase CES that Oculus Rift is leading the pack. What will be the thing that spurs consumers to shell out $350 for a VR headset? Will it be The Walking Dead? The NBA? Rock concerts? Even at the next Sundance Film Festival later this month, there will be a big presence of virtual reality features.

• In 2014, mobile Internet traffic exceeded that from desktops. Who will crack the riddle of mobile advertising? Facebook currently leads the way with 62% of its ad revenue from mobile.

• Audience tracking is a huge, thorny big-data problem. This week CNBC dumped Nielsen ratings in favor of Congent Reports with the channel being unsatisfied with the rating company’s inability to fully capture the scope of its audience. Don’t be surprised if other channels and networks follow as audiences splinter across devices and services.

• Reusable rockets.  Space tourism isn’t over, despite the terrible Virgin Galactic crash last year. Elon Musk’s SpaceX still promises to launch its new reusable, rocket ships this year, which will make reaching space and launching satellites millions of dollars cheaper but has already seen setbacks missing it’s premier demo launch that was scheduled this week.

• More mega-deals? 2014 had more than $3 trillion in mergers and acquisition deals, and the Comcast-Time Warner merger is still on the table. Now there is news this week that Verizon is sniffing around AOL. Money is still cheap and investors seem eager.

Best of luck in 2015 and keep learning,

Brad Grossman and Team ZEITGUIDE

Need to stay on top of these complex issues? Start with the ZEITGUIDE 2015, which gives you context to these questions so you can be better prepared for the answers.

Order the digital package or print copy via Zeitguide.com