ZEITGUIDE TO THE GREEK CRISIS

Another day, another headline, another step forward or backward for Greece.
If you’ve lost thread—and who could blame you—let’s catch you up.
Why is Greece in such deep debt?
Back in 2010, seven years after adopting the Euro as its currency, Greece was headed for bankruptcy. The nation was frozen out of financial markets when it came to light that the government had been underreporting its deficit.
To help Greece, the so-called “troika” (the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission) dropped the country a lifeline in the form of two bailouts, about $265 billion all told.
Of course, this wasn’t free money. It came with conditions including tax increases and strict budgetary austerity. It also required Greece to snuff out tax evasion, reign in rampant corruption, and reform the bureaucracy to help domestic and foreign companies doing business within its borders.
That didn’t really work out.
While it did stabilize Greece’s financial system, the bailout money wasn’t used to stimulate the stagnant economy. Instead, it was used to pay off its international loans which account for €246 billion of its €323 billion debt. As a result, Greek’s economy shrunk by a quarter over the next five years with unemployment hitting nearly 25%.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called the situation a “humanitarian crisis” and he (along with many economists and Greek citizens) blames the whole situation on the strict austerity measures Greece was forced into with the bailouts.
Other Euro zone countries (and we’re looking at you Germany) think the heart of the problem is that Greece is still basically dysfunctional and they wonder how long they have to finance a country that can’t get its act together.
So what’s the latest?
The last month has witnessed another Greece financial crisis as the country once again found itself on the precipice of bankruptcy. Greece failed to make its $1.6 billion debt payment to the IMF. It had to shut down the banks and limit ATM withdrawals to €60 per day.
Tsipras went to the bargaining table with a tough stance, and a nationwide vote rejected another bailout with strict austerity terms. In the end, Tsipras agreed to another austerity deal, ultimately calculating that the short-term political and economic pain of leaving the Euro was too great to stomach. Despite their frustration with austerity, the majority of Greeks want to remain in the European Union. This new €86 billion deal calls for state assets to be sold off and privatized, cutting pensions and public sector employment, and further raising taxes.
Will this deal help the Greek economy recover?
No one is sure. It’s been widely criticized as too harsh on Greece, but there are those who believe the terms don’t go far enough.
Larry Elliott, Economics editor of The Guardian, figures the deal makes Greece’s debt position less sustainable. It “virtually guarantees that its problems come bubbling back to the surface before too long,” he says.
Even Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (which Greece owes €32 billion) has called for considerable debt restructuring, arguing for a grace period, lower interest rates, and extending the time for repayment.
Two of our ZEITGUIDE friends, Mary Karol Cline and DJ Peterson at Longview Global Advisors, are equally skeptical.
“The parties have been kicking the can down the road and it’s hard to see how Greece can dig itself out of this mound of debt,” said Peterson. “Greece will never earn enough income or grow fast enough with a Euro.” Cline adds, “It’s like trying to run a marathon with a cast on.”
Cline and Peterson also note that the deal has been agreed to in principle, but could still fall apart politically at any time. Europe continues to be divided. Many countries, in particular some leaders in Germany, express that it might be better if Greece exited the Euro zone. With their own currency, not the Euro, Greece could have its own monetary policy and the EU wouldn’t have to shell out more to help Greece (though it would still be holding the bags with hundreds of billions of dodgy debt). Either way, the last month has further revealed the economic, political and social fissures threatening Europe.
“The issue at hand is who rules,” says Peterson. “Greeks are asking themselves: Do we lose our identity and autonomy to the Germans who are controlling our destiny? These big questions will persist. And each country is going to have to deal with in their own way. This is a challenge of globalization writ large today.”
Finally, you might be wondering: how has all of this affected day-to-day life in Greece.
ZEITGUIDE founder and CEO Brad Grossman was actually in Greece less than a month ago, talking with citizens and business owners about their experience, even witnessing a protest against austerity in Athens. He was impressed by the resilience of the Greek people in the face of such political and economic chaos. ”The hardworking young people at all my hotels to the taxi drivers to my tour guides were the best I’ve ever had.”
Yet, it will be difficult for Greece to keep their young, creative entrepreneurial citizens in the country. Half of working-age people under 25 have no job. New ventures that Brad experienced—like the Meteora Vineyard, a site rejuvenated in 2009 (but once used by Alexander the Great) and Yatzer.com, a lifestyle site founded by Costas Voyatzis—were few and far between. As a recent New York Times article on Greek startups pointed out, the struggle just to earn a livelihood in Greece has led to a massive brain drain.
Still, some hope that a stronger Greece and Europe can come out of this—if they can face the truth.
“To get over this complex crisis the Greek people have to understand past mistakes and change wrong attitudes that have lasted for decades,” tour guide Maria Maroulaki told Brad. “At the same time, the Euro zone should show solidarity and self-criticism on their share of errors during these past few years.”