ZEITGUIDE “SCIENCE” IMAGE BY KRISTOFER PORTER

Drones are supposed to fly anywhere, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that they do seem to be everywhere right now: Spying on France’s World Cup team in Brazil. Taking overhead “dronies” at the Cannes Lions Festival. Blowing up Kickstarter with a creation called “Air Dog” that follows (and films) your every move.

The term drone, while still churning up moral and political quandaries in a military context, is easily taking on a fun, high-tech mantle in civilian life. They appear to be the next inevitable extension of our mobile and “on demand” lifestyle.

Just where drones will have real economic value is just shaking out. Some projections see commercial use accounting for 12% of the estimated $98 billion in spending on aerial drones over the next decade. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos boldly predicted on “60 Minutes” last December that drones would eventually be used for order deliveries. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon sounded more skeptical at Re/Code’s Code Conference, “If our customers want drones, we’re going to need bigger drones…Our customers get more than one package at a time.”

So if not at your doorstep, where will the drones be?

Google and Facebook have both bought makers of high-altitude drones designed to stay aloft for years. The thinking is that this would be a way to provide Internet access anywhere around the globe without hard wiring.

BP last week announced it would start using drones in Alaska to monitor oil field operations, the first large-scale commercial drone use given the OK by the Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA is also considering expediting approvals for other uses: Hollywood has applied to use drones to get cheap aerial shots, and farmers expect to collect environmental data that will “increase yields and reduce crop damage.”

Meanwhile, civilians are flying drones like they’re kites.

Small, quad copters with mounted cameras have entered the neighborhoods of hobbyists all around the country—largely free of regulation. The FAA does urge users to follow guidelines including staying below 400 feet and away from airports. But a near miss between a drone and an airliner in March has raised concerns about the lack of real rules. Jonathan Downey, founder and CEO of drone startup Airware, said there are two equal risks: “Excessive regulation and none at all.” The FAA needs to strike a Goldilocks middle ground on regulating private drones, posits Re/Code reporter James Temple.

It better move fast. French company Parrot is rolling out a new smartphone-controlled minidrone in August. There’s even an equivalent to a YouTube channel for all the amateur aerial video, called TravelByDrone.

Drone mania has taken off. The question is, where will they land?

Keep Learning,

Brad Grossman

Creator, ZEITGUIDE
Founder, Grossman & Partners

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