ZEITGUIDE ‘DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION’ IMAGE BY KRIS PORTER

Watching the U.S. economy is like living with a moody teenager: you have no idea what you’re going to face on any given day.

Take Black Friday.  It started out looking good, with giant retailers Target and Walmart bragging about huge online sales.

Then the other shoe dropped. Overall sales over the holiday weekend were down 11%. Fewer people did any shopping, and those who did spent less. Add that to a year where U.S. consumer spending has stayed pretty flat.

Zoom out on the domestic situation, though, and GDP has been growing at its best rate in a decade. Gasoline prices fell below $3 a gallon on average for the first time since 2010.The unemployment rate is under 6%, and there are more job openings than even in 2001. In fact, according to the New York Times report that was released today, 2014 is shaping up to be the best in 15 years for total gains in U.S. jobs.

That all sounds good, right?

Well, kind of. Too many jobs are part time and/or low wage. The pace of hiring is the slowest it’s been in 13 years, and demand for workers still isn’t nudging up wages. Meanwhile labor force participation rates are still too low to be considered healthy.

So what’s holding the lid on?

Business leaders here still have trepidations because global markets appear shaky at best. Japan is aggressively pursuing more economic stimulus.  Europe is flirting again with deflation. Oil prices have taken a precipitous drop. So have other raw materials, which some take to mean that China—a major raw material importer—could slow down sooner than expected.

America’s economic tide and stronger dollar certainly aren’t strong enough to lift all these boats—indeed, the fear is that a brittle global economy will provide too much drag heading into 2015.

The world economy is at a pivot point. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund thinks more bold steps are needed or we’ll remain mired in what she calls a “new mediocre.”

“A critical focus for next year will be whether the healing U.S. economy can lead the way for the rest of the world or if the opposite will happen and the world drags the U.S. down,” says investor and  ZEITGUIDE partner Scott Grossman. “As such, we’ll likely see CEOs express diverging opinions with diverging actions in 2015.”

The U.S. economy might be growing, but it still has zits and a bad attitude.

For more of our thoughts on 2015, TODAY is the last day to get the Special-Limited FIRST edition book expressed delivered by December 20th. That also includes a digital copy, and a signed Kris Porter art print, who created the images you’ve seen throughout the year including the one above.

For Enterprise Packages, here you can print our order sheet to fill out and send back to us by today.

Keep Learning,

Brad