Zeitguide “Global Crisis” Image by Kris Porter

The mission of ZEITGUIDE is to lead our readers through the cultural conversations that are re-shaping our lives, our work and our businesses.  Right now, all conversations seem dominated by Ebola—the horrific outbreak that has taken 4,500 lives so far.

While our own fears dominate major Western media channels, little attention has been given to the economic effect on Africa, a place that has often been called “The Continent of the 21^st Century.”

Last year, more than $53 billion in foreign investment flowed into Africa. Fears stemming from the Ebola outbreak have led to closed borders, cancelled infrastructure projects, and a general chill on investments across Africa. The World Bank says the economic drain could reach $32.6 billion by the end of next year if the virus spreads to more countries.

West Africa in particular was rebounding from decades of civil war and poverty. But we’re already seeing the economic costs of fear:

• Liberia enjoyed five years of double-digit growth, and Western investors were opening oceanfront resorts and manufacturing centers. Today, the country’s major exports (rubber, gold and diamond mining) have dropped off. The government has suspended tax collection. And the World Bank predicts economic growth will plunge by at least half this year as the best-case scenario.

• In Sierra Leone, the economy surged 15% in 2012 and 20% in 2013. Now it’s asking for $1 billion in aid to fight the epidemic while hoping to maintain 7% GDP growth.

• Guinea was forecasting 14% GDP growth—double the average for sub-Saharan Africa. But its forecasts have also been slashed by half with their largest iron-ore companies on the verge of collapse.

• Neighboring Ivory Coast and Ghana—the world’s largest producers of cocoa—haven’t had an Ebola outbreak. Yet both could still see exports take a dive because of fearful investors.

The economic contagion could spread faster and wider than the virus itself. Just months ago we issued a ZEITGUIDE on the exciting growth in Nigeria, highlighting the country’s extensive opportunities in energy, agriculture, financial, mobile, consumer goods, fashion, and entertainment, as Nollywood has been the second largest hub for film production in the world, behind India. Nigeria has contained the disease to 20 infections—and yet is also hurting from a slowdown in regional trade.

Fighting Ebola is not just about containing the disease; it also is about preserving the global economic relationship with Africa.

But hope and opportunity must persist in the face of fear. As Donald Kaberuka, President of the African Development, said in response to such fears, “I think the narrative we need to hear is we can resolve this matter if all of us work together.”

Keep learning,

Brad Grossman and Team ZEITGUIDE