ZEITGUIDE TO 11 QUESTIONS FOR 2016

Here at ZEITGUIDE headquarters, we eschew making predictions. And we make the same resolution every year: ask smarter questions.
In that spirit, here are 11 of the many questions we’ll be exploring over the year ahead.
1. What’s the future of the 9-to-5 workday?
Arguably, nothing is changing more than how we work. By 2020, more than 40% of U.S. labor will qualify as freelance workers. Companies including Uber and Task Rabbit – which outsource rides and small jobs respectively– are streamlining the availability of part-time gigs outside the eight-hour workday. Is that a recipe for job insecurity and wage stagnation, or a happier more flexible workforce?
2. How will the U.N. Climate Change Agreement play out?
The landmark agreement reached in Paris in December requires 200 countries to try their damnedest to keep temperatures from rising more than 2°C by the end of the century. A recent Citi report estimated that, in the end, investing in green energy costs no more than doing nothing — but also spares us $72 trillion in economic damage. So will the globe get its act together?
3. Is FinTech finally here?
A budding industry of financial tech startups (“FinTech”) are disrupting how we spend, borrow, lend and invest. New systems called “blockchains” in particular hold the promise of altering how we exchange money as dramatically as Napster changed how we access music.
4. Are we approaching ‘peak content?’
When FX CEO John Landgraf stated that, “there is simply too much television” last summer, a lot of people quietly nodded while also looking down at their smartphones. Between TV, social media and the web, viewers have more entertainment options than ever. But it’s getting hard for anything to break out, let alone break even. The content bubble already appears to be deflating: some major online players including Snapchat and Yahoo mothballed their original content departments last year.
5. Will sports lovers ever be able to cut the cord?
Major sports leagues like the NBA and MLB offer out-of-market streaming games to broadband and mobile customers — not just those with cable or satellite. If sports go “a la carte,” it could have a major impact on the TV business that relies on forcing its huge audiences to sit through commercials. ESPN subscriptions already dropped by 7 million in the last two years.
6. Are all online ads going native?
2015 was a challenging year for the advertising industry with the rise of ad-blocking, reports of fraudulent clicks from “bots,” and poor ad “viewability” results. How much will advertisers invest into online display ads if they can’t be sure eyeballs land on it? If ads go native — like those camouflaged in your Twitter feed — will that beat the bots? Perhaps noting this brave new world of native advertising, the F.T.C. has outlined new guidelines to minimize readers being misled by poorly labeled advertising content veiled as articles – giving advertisers yet another variable to contend with.
7. What will become of China and Hollywood’s blossoming relationship?
China’s economy may be slowing, but its love for movies isn’t. Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda reportedly is buying a $3- to 4-billion majority stake in Legendary Entertainment (producer of “Jurassic World,” “Dark Knight” and “The Hangover”). Hollywood has been tailoring global blockbusters like “Transformers” to Chinese audiences; we wonder if they’ll return the favor.
8. Will we stop wanting fries with that?
In Hong Kong, the new “McDonald’s Next” restaurant is, no joke, offering sides of quinoa or asparagus. Big soda companies are making more money off plain bottled water. New food-delivery services offer prepped ingredients you can to your door faster than a pizza. Maybe the scales will finally tip on the obesity epidemic.
9. Is there another tech bubble?
Nick Bilton’s Vanity Fair piece documented the bubbly culture of today’s Silicon Valley: interns making $84,000 a year, vanity architecture, and nerd-celebrities. But with far fewer IPOs and way more late-stage funding rounds, the investment risk is concentrated in fewer hands. There are more than 100 “unicorns”—privately held startups valued above $1 billion—and most don’t have viable exit strategies. Bilton quotes investor Aileen Lee saying some will certainly become “uni-corpses.”
10. How will our shopping habits change?
Recent news that holiday foot traffic in-store fell by 6.4% but sales were up 3.3%. That suggests that we are turning online to make our purchases more and more. That also may have hurt Macy’s which said it was cutting 4,500 jobs after slumping holiday sales. Despite these concerns, Mckinsey stated that in 2020, more 80 percent of U.S. retail sales will still happen within the four walls of a store. So maybe the happy-medium is the promise of “omni-channel” where retailers can connect to customers on all their platforms (online, mobile, etc) whether in-store, in the the car, or at home.
11. Who will be president?
OK, obvious question. But really, the signature moves of the last eight years, including expanded access to health insurance and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, could change in the years ahead with whoever is elected in November.